KN-08:The semi-mobile Limited Range ICBM

No-dong-C

Introduction

Circumstantial evidence had been building up for some years that had begun to suggest to US and South Korean intelligence that North Korea was attempting to develop a semi-mobile ICBM. This information though thin was initially suggested in public speech in a Singapore conference and on a trip to China to the press pool by then U. S. Defense Secretary, Dr. Robert M. Gates followed later by Admiral Robert F. Willard, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, before the House Armed Services Committee . (20, 21) On March 12, 2013 DNI the honorable James R. Clapper stated before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that the ..."last April it displayed what appears to be a rogue mobile intercontinental ballistic missile. We believe North Korea has already taken initial steps towards fielding this system, although it remains untested. "

The North Korean NK-08, LR-ICBM [No-Dong-C] developed from the Acad. V. P. Makeyev OKB derivation of the Soviet SS-N-6 the DPRK, No-dong-B and the Soviet SS-N-8, SLBM designs for this land based semi-mobile ICBM presently in its research and development phase.

Pending Experimental Flight Test Regime

The very later news according to the Yonhap News Agency of February 17, 2013 from South Korean multiple government, officials not for attribution on intelligence collected is that North Korea the DPRK has successfully test fired the KN-08/No-dong-C prototype missiles critical first stage engine in static test firings. It was carried out on the Pongdong-ni, or Dongchong-ri or Tongch'ang-dong, Sohae Satellite Launching Station in Cholsan County, North Phyongan Province static test firing center. This was not carried out on the Musudan-ri, Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground infrastructure in Hwadae County, in North Hamgyong Province R & D static test center previously used in earlier partially successful test firings as noted below. This testing was carried out during February 11, 2013 shortly before the DPRK carried out its third or fourth nuclear test on February 12, 2013. (88, 89, 90, 91)

This kind of ground testing based on typical past DPRK practices is probably a prelude to the experimental flight test to follow in the next 3-6 months or within one year of the test firings of the flight test engines. This fits within the DPRK mid Five Year Plan cycle when the test flights are expected. Once the engines are cleaned up from being disassembled and reassembled for flight they would be installed into the operational experiment flight test vehicle that is then shipped to the launch site for its flight demonstration.

Also

Then Secretary of Defense, Leon E. Panetta expressed concerns about the perceived early DPRK country wide dispersal deployment of the KN-08 / No-dong-C semi-mobile ICBM’s which is entirely explainable as noted below under the Purpose of Six or more Ground Test Models of the KN-08’s [No-dong-C]. (92)

Background Information

The South Korea, Ministry of Defense says the KN-08 has a range of 6,000 kilometers rounded off {4,987.90 - 5,985.48 kilometers} essentially matching the TD-2 performance of 6,000 – 6,700 kilometers.  However this all new storable highly toxic liquid fuel three stage Limited Range ICBM has the added advantage of being semi-mobile for pre-surveyed GPS supported launch sites instead of the open soft site for the DPRK space booster efforts. Initial views were that it was a solid propellant Limited Range ICBM but when the detailed close up imagery followed it revealing too many recognizable Makeyev, OKB, ports, vents and access hatches to be a solid propellant missile. Typically road semi-mobile missiles are based on solid propellants that make them hard to track and easier to hide but quickly to launch with almost no warning. It takes hours to prepare liquid propellant versions of semi-mobile ICBM’s which is why the missile will probably be deployed in cave tunnel garrisons.

Unexplained, Makeyev OKB Heritage Implication of Continued DPRK Developments

The KN-08 has a V. P. Makeyev OKB, technology heritage design wise but must be presumed to reflect a very real modernized strategic ballistic missile system that is in the advanced stages of development that is intended to match to the extent possible the Taepo-dong-2 space booster capability. In the long run the Taep’o-dong-2 has outlived its strategic usefulness if it ever was intended for that purpose because only open soft sites have been built for it. There can be no further doubt about the ongoing Makeyev OKB liquid propellant RSM-25/RSM-40/RSM-50, SLBM’s technology transfer to North Korea based on the entire previous systems heritage. That heritage goes back to the Scud-B through Taep’o-dong-2 technology, and personnel, technology transfer that took place in the Gorbachev era. It strongly suggests that the Makeyev personnel remaining are still working on DPRK missile systems. It is interesting to note they are still having trouble developing space boosters which is not their experience base but they have been highly successful developing ballistic missiles. This KN-08 missile provokes and begs the question, Is the missile technology transfer continuing from rogue Makeyev, OKB personnel in the Russian Federation?

The North Korean and Iranian missile heritage family as developed from the Acad. V. P. Makeyev OKB missile systems technology transfer.

We now have a consistent Acad. V. P. Makeyev, OKB launch vehicle and Acad. A. M. Isayev ; OKB -2 propulsion design heritage for the following systems that have flown in flight test except for the latest last two in research and development: They are as follows:

Acad. V. P. Makeyev OKB DPRK Heritage Missile Systems:

Name Type Designations, Missions, S/F

KN-03?	Scud-B	TBM	Success
KN-04?	Scud-C	TBM	Hwasong-5 Success
KN-05?	Scud-ER	TBM	Hwasong-6 Success
KN-06???	No dong-A	MRBM	Success
KN-07?	No dong-B	IRBM	Success
Cancelled	Taep’o dong-1	Space booster	Unha-1 Failure
	Taep’o dong-2, R & D	Space booster	Unha-2, 3, 4 Failures/5 success
?	NK-SD-SL-X-?, R & D	Dedicated Space Booster	Geostationary/Manned L.V.
KN-08	No-dong-C, R & D	LRICBM to replace TD-2	[No-dong-C (cpv)]

TBM-Tactical Ballistic missile, MRBM-Medium Range Ballistic Missile, IRBM- Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile, LRICBM – Limited Range Inter-continental Ballistic Missile

Yes Iran has the solid motor technology demonstrated but has it been transferred to the DPRK is at this writing is not proven in spite of the level of cooperation in missile & nuclear weapons well documented and demonstrated. Iranian solid propellant missile developments and expectations as it is understood at this writing. It is believed that Iran is reworking Ashura with Sejjil proven technology but it is a delicate program with several dramatic failures experienced so far both on the ground and in flight. For the present the Sejjil has replaced Ashura. Iran is believed to be working on a solid propellant ICBM based on the extension of the Sejjil & Ashura missile systems. But is the DPRK getting that solid motor technology? There is no known public open sources evidence to suggest that.

Iran's Solid motor propulsion family developments

The North Korean and Iranian family of liquid propellant missile developments

Comparisons North Korean (DPRK) and Iranian ballistic missiles & Space boosters through 2013

The critical point is No-dong-B:

Iran and DPRK have the advanced closed cycle propulsion system placed inside their propellant tanks of the No-dong-B that was flight tested on January 17, 2006 out of Iran for both the DPRK and Iran traveling some 3,218 km of its known potential 3,861 km range demonstrated then during one of the DPRK’s moratoriums. In that respect this is both confirmed by the Israeli Intelligence sources & methods but especially the U. S. Ballistic Defense Agency officials in speech.

The North Korean and Iranian No-dong-B missile system derived from the Acad. V. P. Makeyev OKB SS-N-6 missile systems technology transfer to the DPRK.

The North Korean No-dong-B missile transporter erector launcher TEL system as deployed in the DPRK.

The critical point is No-dong-B:

Finally on January 29, 2007 the US government acknowledged for the first time the existence of several new Iranian and North Korean missiles under development through a speech by the deputy director of the Missile Defense Agency of the Pentagon Army Brig. General Patrick O’Reilly before the George C Marshall Institute. In that speech he described the Iranian two stage Ghadr-110 solid propellant missile with a range of (1,324 miles) 1,995.16 or close to 2,000 kilometers. It has been known that the Iranians are working on the Ghadr-101 as well as the Ghadr-110 solid propellant missiles. The Ghadr-101 solid motor development was completed in 2005. He also described the two stage Taep’o-dong-2b as having a range of (6,200 Miles) 9,975.8 kilometers and the three stage version with a range of (9,300 miles) 14,963.7 kilometers with a 250 kg warhead. He went further in his slides presentation to show that the No-dong-B has a demonstrated range of 2,000 miles or 3,218 kilometers (3,000 kilometers) when it is capable of flying (2,485 miles) or 4,000 kilometers. (24) The No-dong-B was described as “a qualitative improvement in the performance” from earlier North Korean missile systems. The Iranian Ghadr-101, 110, 110A will in fact also provides Iran with an ASAT capability besides its operational MRBM and IRBM capability. (23)

Today we know the maximum potential range of No-dong-B is 3,861 km not 4,000 km {But where did that come from in-country vertical probe flight testing?} though 3,218 km has been demonstrated successfully. It utilizes throughout a fuel of Unsymmetrical Dimethyl hydrazine (UDMH) while its oxidizer is a derivation of (Inhibited Red Fuming nitric Acid (IRFNA) & N204 = AK-27P) in its single stage. (29)

Advent of the KN-08 LRICBM development progress  

Leaked Department of State Classified Cables Excerpts Confirm Rumors of Two New Missile Systems in Development in the DPRK while continuing the development of the Taep’o-dong-2

Keeping an eye on two circumstantial developments in North Korea (DPRK) missilery Bill Gertz of the Washington Times, noted on December 5, 2011 the known passages from classified Department of State cables from the web site WikiLeaks. It reviews and confirms the KN-08 Semi-mobile LR-ICBM development. (20) The cables also indicates the two different systems at issue one a semi-mobile Limited Range-ICBM and one a large space booster potential super full range ICBM the mission of which was not at the time fully understood when written. (20)  

February 2010 cable: “ One is using the Taepodong-2, with a range of up to 9,300 miles, (14,963.70 kilometers) as its main strategic missile. A second way is to further develop the ranges of existing missiles like the Musudan ,[No-dong-B, Mirim cpv] and last is to “use the very large launch facility that is being constructed on the west coast of  to launch a very large missile,” the cable said. (20)

And

“Oct. 6, 2009, cable on ’s missile program said the Musudan intermediate-range missile is based on Russia’s SS-N-6/(RSM-25) submarine-launched ballistic missile that has a range of up to 2,400 miles.” That is 3,861.60 kilometers. (20)

Several quotes from a public speech in a Singapore conference and on a trip to China to the press pool by then Defense of Secretary, Dr. Robert M. Gates followed later by Adm. Robert F. Willard, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, before the House Armed Services Committee shows that two different systems had evolved over the previous DPRK, Five Year Plan, a Semi-Mobile LR-ICBM and the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in Cholsan County, North Phyongan Province infrastructure growth potential pad and gantry umbilical tower for medium heavy lift space booster (20, 21)

“Officials familiar with the intelligence said government analysts believe the missile could be a variant of North Korea's new Musudan intermediate-range missile,….”(20) [I.E.: No-dong-B, Mirim cpv]

and

“After a speech in Singapore, Mr. Gates said, "With the continued development of long-range missiles and potentially a road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile and their continuing development of nuclear weapons, ... North Korea is in the process of becoming a direct threat to the United States." (20)

and

"Mr. Gates first told reporters Jan. 11, (2011) during a visit to China that North Korea's progress in building intercontinental ballistic missiles was turning the Pyongyang regime into a "direct threat to the United States." (20)

and

"Pressed for details, he said, "I don't think it's an immediate threat, no. But on the other hand, I don't think it's a five-year threat." (20)

"Let me be precise," he added. "I think that North Korea will have developed an intercontinental ballistic missile within that time frame, not that they will have huge numbers or anything like that, but I believe they will have a very limited capability." (20)

and

"The Daily Beast quoted Mr. Gates in June (2011) saying, "They are developing a road-mobile ICBM. I never would have dreamed they would go to a road-mobile before testing a static ICBM. It's a huge problem. As we've found out in a lot of places, finding mobile missiles is very tough."(20) [I.E.: Possible Iran’s GPS, experience with liquid propellant semi-mobile ballistic missiles may have helped with perfecting the technology cpv]

And

“There is development within North Korea of a road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile system that we’ve observed,” Adm. Robert F. Willard, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, told the House Armed Services Committee on Friday. (21)

“We have not observed it being tested yet, to my knowledge. We are watching the development very closely.” (21)

The question to ask of U. S. intelligence and DoD has it been flight tested vertically like a sounding rocket inside the DPRK or Iran and or what have they not told us? The same question especially applies to the South Korean officials of the Minister of Defense and executive branch? Leaked Department of State classified cables excerpts confirm rumors of two new missile systems in development in the DPRK

As of March 2012 no LR-ICBM has been launched according to A dm. Robert F. Willard, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, but it has undergone dynamic and static test firing leading to future flight tests in-country with in this five year plan.

DPRK Parade April 15, 2012, the First Public Appearance of the KN-08 LRICBM

The April 15, 2012, the first public appearance of the KN-08 LR-ICBM were merely six KN-08 inert mock-ups for parade display just as the Soviets put on display in Moscow Square twice yearly during the Cold War that were incomplete in their full systems details as displayed. The primary example of what the Soviet did that is very document able is the SS-9, ICBM display with the structural under lying stringers of the warhead clearly visible on its mock-up metal skin. Whether the KN-08 750-800-1,000 kilogram warhead design displayed with its underlying stringers reflects the actual design intended is unknown. The displayed Soviet Parade missile model of the SS-9 models did not show the operational re-entry vehicle design. Yet the real operational SS-9 Scarp ICBM was a very real deployed strategic ballistic missile system. That ICBM today is known as the Commercial Tsyklon space booster of the Ukraine. It has external vernier engine mounting not shown in the parade versions. FOBS/Scrag is another example of the prototype missiles being paraded that was never put into production for deployment. See the following illustrations:

No nation displays fully fueled Ballistic missile much less solid propellant missiles. Never live armed weapons fully fueled. Those same structural underlying stringers are visible on the dummy warhead of the KN-08 in addition to the poor weld lines not ground down. The regiment of six semi-mobile missiles serves multiple purposes for design development, production, ground testing and DPRK, Strategic Rocket Forces training in logistic for operations to come.

Purpose of Six or more Ground Test Models of the KN-08’s [No-dong-C]:

This usually entails utilizing some 10-20 models total in a standard hardware R&D operation:

1. Strategic Rocket Forces logistic brigade training for early field deployment demonstration ring out operations if not to firmly decide the best deployment strategy,

2. Ground Systems testing, fueling, de fueling operations,

3. Manufacturing demonstration with variation in the design considerations,

4. Dynamic testing models which involves several models some of which are destroyed during those stress loads operations,

5. Stage Static Test models two of which have already failed and must be replaced with better refined designs test vehicles based on the failures knowledge gained,

6. Overall Systems integration test development model

They were therefore not fakes but early field deployment models following the Soviet practice’s they were taught. Thus the parade displayed model designs details differences observed. They also serve both as a DPRK Maskirovka operation as well as reflecting a very real system that is in the advanced stages of development that will match the Taepo-dong-2 booster capability as a strategic system. The KN-08, LR-ICBM is a real vehicle seen by DoD, intelligence assets and discussed by former Secretary of Defense, Dr. Robert M. Gates as noted above. (20, 21, 22)

KN-08 Engine, Stage Systems & Dynamic Testing of Flight Hardware

 The KN-08 boosters stage engines combination have been static test fired four times over sixteen weeks during 2011 and early 2012 at the static test firing and dynamic test facilities located on the Musudan-ri,” (Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground infrastructure in Hwadae County, in North Hamgyong Province. (75, 75A)

It was reported on the 24 hour news channel, “YTN TV of Seoul, South Korea quoted an intelligence source as saying “the communist state carried out four tests over 16 weeks until early this year to develop an inter-continental missile at a test facility at Musudan-ri on the northeastern coast.” And that “The tests were aimed at improving engines and propellant fuel for the missile, code-named KN-08, the source said.” (75, 75A)

It went on further to say as stated by “South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency and the YTN TV later citing military sources and analyst as saying the rocket is a new long-range missile. Presumed to be a ballistic missile with a range of to 6,000 kilometers rounded off (3,700 miles)” This identifies the KN-08 as a limited range ICBM. (75) It is further indicated by Chosun Ilbo that the four, stage engine combination static test firings had at least one or two failure bringing into question whether the test series was successful according to the South Korean military sources. (80,80A, 87)

Recent firings as noted above would seen to indicate that the engine test have resolved the issue previously encountered. (88, 89, 90, 91)

The KN-08 Details as Presently Understood:

The KN-08 as understood today is about 18-7 to 19.2 meter long with the first two stages bodies about 1.8 meters in diameter. Its first stage features a base skirt transitioning from the 1.8 meter body diameter to the skirt 2 meter base diameter. This does not include the four vernier's housing units outside the 2 meter of the base skirt diameter. Its second stage utilizes the main thrust chamber immersed in the top of the first stage. The third stage is 1.3-1.35 meters in diameter and may utilize two or four vernier's on their own separate turbo-machinery derived from the No-dong-B vernier engine. These KN-08 engine, stage systems & dynamic testing of flight hardware were focused on improving the closed cycle propulsion performance of the engines before flight test of the KN-08 commence within this 2011-2015 Five Year Plan soon. KN-08 first stage improved propellant tank immersed closed cycle propulsion higher performance engines of 50,985.81 kilograms force thrust each separate from the other vernier engine system is based on the RSM-40/SS-N-8, & RSM-50/SS-N-18 SLBM's propulsion systems technology. The four vernier's on each stage operate based on a separate open cycle turbo-machinery system. The applicable propulsion systems being utilized for the KN-08 will be applied to the Taep’o-dong-3 dedicated geostationary space booster’s development program. It utilizes throughout a fuel of Unsymmetrical Dimethyl hydrazine (UDMH) while its oxidizer is a derivation of (73% Inhibited Red Fuming nitric Acid (IRFNA) & 27% N204 = AK-27S) in all stages. (29, 82)

The North Korean NK-08 LR-ICBM [No-Dong-C] developed from the Acad. V. P. Makeyev OKB derivation of the SS-N-6 the DPRK No-dong-B and the SS-N-8, SS-N-18, SLBM designs for this land based semi-mobile ICBM presently in its research and development phase. Serious Reality Questions on the Semi-mobile ICBM Viability.

Realistically these are large rocket systems of a semi-mobile designs on the order of 21 meter long and as wide as a railroad car requiring considerable support personnel and mobile fueling vehicles and mobile ground support systems in addition to hours of preparation on pre-surveyed sites. They may be deployed in “coffin”, “silo” or more likely than not “ cave/underground tunnel” which the DPRK is famous for based military garrison sites much like China has done in the past. This vehicle would require an entourage of many support vehicles including multiple propellant tankers trucks for the individual stage propellants as well as power generator and command and control vehicles. In both cases the Taep'o-dong-2 which has failed in three launches in 2006, 2009 and 2012 and KN-08/No-dong-C if launched at some world target would have well over repeating well over half of the vehicle fail to reach their targets. To date both missiles have had no successful demonstration flight tests ranging over 6,000-6,700 kilometers.

TEL Transporter Erector Launcher Revealed:

The North Korean NK-08 LR-ICBM [No-Dong-C] transporter erector launcher the tractor and it carriage system was provided by the the PRC China manufacturer.

Serious Reality Questions on the Semi-mobile ICBM Viability

The April 15, 2012, Pyongyang, DPRK, military parade display of the first public appearance of the KN-08 LRICBM with it large Chinese 9 th Academy of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation [CASIC] known as the Hubei Sanjiand Space Wanshan Special Vehicles Co., Inc., factory for heavy transporter short cab model of the tractor WS51200 also called WS2600 super heavy-duty off–road chassis was quite a controversial public surprise. It utilizes a total of eight axles with 16 wheels 1.6 meters in diameter with six wheel steering up front and stretches a total of 20.11 meters and a width and height of 3.35 meters without the DPRK added related equipment bays, erector and pad for the KN-08 ballistic missile. That would extend its length to 21 meters and a loaded capacity of up to 122 metric tonnes at a cost of 30 million Yuan for six vehicles. (81)

On or about October 19, 2010 the DPRK probable front company Rimmok General Trading purchase six and or possibly eight with spare parts of these tractors transporters under the civil pretenses for “ carrying timber” operational use according to the Chinese company possibly through a third party country which remains an unanswered question. (81, 83, 84, 85, 86.) It is known that these tractors have been used to transport Chinese DF-31 ICBM’s. (86) Although the April 15, 2012 Pyongyang, DPRK, military parade only displayed six of these TEL vehicles it is believed to have only initially received two or four of the tractor transporters vehicles earlier in 2011.

Subsequently a second shipment delivered four additional vehicles that were shipped from Shanghai, China, on the Cambodian-flagged cargo ship, Harmony Wish, on August 1, 2011 for a three day journey to the port of Nampo, DPRK where the four transporters were delivered in early August. The Cambodian registered cargo vessel then later on journeyed to Osaka, Japan during October 2011 where upon based on intelligence satellite tracking imagery of the ships activities the Japanese Coast Guard did a thorough inspection of the vessel and its record books for its detailed documentation on the cargo delivered to the DPRK. Therein they discovered that the Harmony Wish, Cambodian registered ship had delivered the four additional military vehicles transporters from the Chinese 9 th Academy of the China, Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation [CASIC] known as the [Wuhan Sanjiang Import Export Co.], Hubei Sanjiand Space Wanshan Special Vehicles Co., Inc., factory. They were the heavy transporter short cab model of the tractor WS51200 also called WS2600 super heavy-duty off–road chassis Subsequently Japanese Coast Guard officials shared this information with Japanese Intelligence that in turn shared it with the Republic of South Korea and the United States. This was a probable a difficult to prove technical violation of the U. N Security Council Resolution 1718 on the part of China though they say that they did not violate the resolution intent or Chinese law. (83, 84, 85, 86.)

Conclusions:

The KN-08, Semi-Mobile, Limited Range-ICBM system had evolved over the previous five year plan that is a very real vehicle seen by DoD intelligence assets and discussed by former Secretary of Defense, Dr. Robert M. Gates. It is in the advanced stage of development heading to flight testing. Through this writing no LR-ICBM has been flown but it has undergone Research & Development, dynamic and static test firing leading to future flight tests within this Five Year Plan